California’s unemployment rate hit a record 11.2 percent in March, leaving 2.1 million people jobless — the highest level since World War II, according to a report released last week (“State Unemployment Rate Highest Since 1941,” San Francisco Chronicle, April 18, 2009).

The March figure surpasses the 11 percent unemployment rate the state reached during the early 1980’s recession, says Patti Roberts, spokeswoman for the state’s Employment Development Department. The March unemployment rate approaches the 11.7 percent unemployment rate the state had in January 1941.

While last month’s unemployment rate for the state was significantly higher than the national figure of 8.5 percent for March, California had the 4th highest rate of unemployment in the country, perhaps due to the decline in real estate.

“California’s higher rate of job loss is primarily the result of greater exposure to the housing downturn,” said Stephen Levy, director and senior economist at the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

Forecasters Vary on Outlook

The unemployment rate is grim and many Californians have been affected by job losses, “But on the other hand things are not really as bad as you might think,” said Chris Thornberg of Beacon Economics, a California real estate and economic forecasting firm.

Thornberg believes that these job losses can be attributed to the slump in consumer spending over the last year, and sees spending starting to stabilize in the near future along with the job market.

But Jerry Nickelsburg, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, believes that in all likelihood, the job market will continue to get worse before it gets better. He predicts California’s jobless rate will reach a high of 12 percent before it begins to decline sometime in 2010.

“Unemployment will likely creep up through the end of the year,” Nickelsburg said, “because employers will want to see that the increase in demand is strong before they hire.”

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